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Brutal third wave or harmless ripple? The scientists aren’t yet sure | News


The crucial modelling paper presented to the prime minister late last week was far from conclusive. The document, which projected the combined impact of the Indian variant with a full unlocking on June 21, confirmed a significant third wave of coronavirus is under way and said it would inevitably grow if restrictions were lifted.

But will that surge of cases prove to be a harmless ripple? Or a brutal wave which threatens to overwhelm the NHS once more? That, the modellers confess, is not yet clear. Professor Neil Ferguson, a key member of the Spi-M Covid modelling group, which produced the document, said: “We cannot be definitive about the scale of it. We’ve tried to communicate what the scale of the potential risk is.”


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